The world’s trade ministers gathered in the UAE on Monday for a high-level meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO), but prospects for major breakthroughs are unclear due to geopolitical tensions and disagreements.
The 13th ministerial conference of the WTO, known as MC13, is taking place in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, and is the first in two years. The WTO is hoping for progress, particularly in areas such as fishing, agriculture, and electronic commerce.
However, reaching significant agreements is unlikely because the WTO requires full consensus among all 164 member states, which is challenging in the current climate.
Experts suggest that negotiators are focused on tactical positions, making it seem like the other side is blocking negotiations. The WTO Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, expects the meeting to be challenging due to economic and political headwinds, including conflicts, inflation, rising food prices, and economic difficulties in Europe and China.
During the previous ministerial meeting in Geneva in 2022, trade ministers achieved a historic deal banning harmful fisheries subsidies and agreed to a temporary patent waiver for Covid-19 vaccines. They also committed to re-establishing a dispute settlement system that had been stalled due to the United States’ blocking of new judges to the WTO’s appeals court.
Replicating the success of the previous meeting will be extremely challenging, according to European Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis. Negotiations on important issues such as fisheries, agriculture, and e-commerce will remain open until the final phase of the conference. Negotiations on dispute settlement reform and the outcome document will also be challenging.
The WTO is under pressure to make progress on reforms before the possible re-election of Donald Trump as US president. During his previous term, Trump threatened to withdraw the United States from the WTO and disrupted its dispute settlement process.
While major issues like agriculture may not see significant progress, there is hope for small advancements, especially in providing aid to developing countries. Two new countries, Comoros and East Timor, are expected to be accepted as WTO members during the meeting.
Although more plurilateral agreements with a narrower number of signatories are being reached, obtaining full consensus remains difficult. The ongoing war in Gaza and attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Yemeni rebels pose additional challenges and disrupt global maritime trade.
The current situation is characterized by geopolitical tensions, high expectations from developing nations, economic difficulties, and the risk of a fragmented global economy.
